The consensus about the upcoming fiscal year is that it remains a mystery.

Although budgets have been approved at state and local levels, economists and legislators still have varying ideas about what the fall will bring to the economy.

State Sen. George Hooks, D-Americus, a member of Georgia’s Appropriations Committee, thinks Georgia hasn’t "hit bottom" yet because state revenue collections tend to lag a year behind national levels.

"The state budget is based primarily on corporations and individual income taxes. Sales taxes are another component but not as strong as individual taxes," Hooks said. "It takes a while for income to catch up because we don’t file it every day, unlike states such as Alabama, Florida and others that are dependent on sales tax."

But Hooks said he wouldn’t take a stab at guessing when the bottom will come.

"I don’t think anyone in their reasonable mind would project a target date, but I hope it’s soon," he said.

For fiscal year 2010, the state legislator has written a "tight, austere" budget to provide adequate funding for education, Medicaid and corrections, Hooks said.

"We’ve tightened our belts as much as we can," he said. "We did everything humanly possible to not cut education and Medicaid, and we have furloughs in corrections. But there are only so many days you can do that."

Hooks said reserve funds and the economic stimulus package have been a "welcome relief, especially in education," but the state needs to cut even more.

"We continue to look at ways to cut down to the bone marrow, picking up every rock," he said. "But we’re not looking at any tax increases or taxes on commodities like candy or cigarettes. That doesn’t generate that much income anyway."

Sen. Jack Hill, R-Reidsville, chairman of the state’s Appropriations Committee, said he "doesn’t know anyone who is talking about any tax increase" but instead systemic changes to save money long term.

"It’s about reprioritizing the services of the state and looking at new ways to do things," he said. "With people suffering and unemployment high, it makes little sense to take money out of people’s pockets when they’re low on funds to begin with."

Although the new fiscal year begins July 1, there are murmurs of calling a special session of the General Assembly in August or September to approve final cuts.

"There are pros and cons to a special session," Hill said. "Pros are that legislators get a chance to vote on what the cuts are going to be and can defend them better. We’re not in favor of cuts being handed down by the executive branch and we just implement them, and the governor has said he’s interested in us having a role before we’re seven or eight months into the fiscal year."

Hill said he’s more worried about fiscal year 2011.

"We’ve used up our reserves and one-time pots of money and are basically on our own now with budget cuts, revenue and stimulus funds," he said. "And the problem with 2010 is there’s nothing I see that says we have reached the bottom or that we’re in a ‘V’ instead of a ‘U’ shape of recovery. Will the economy wallow and then start back up?"

Once the rebound starts, recovery will be slow and flat-lined, predicts Jeffrey Humphreys, director of the Selig Center for Economic Growth at the University of Georgia.

"The bad news is it may take time to build back up; it’ll be a slow-go recovery," he said. "But I think Georgia and the nation will bottom out around August and September."

Humphreys said he sees the state and national economy "joined at the hip" during this recession.

"The recession started about the same time but was initially milder in Georgia. That changed when both the nation and state became dramatically worse in September because of job losses," he said.

"Then Georgia was vulnerable because we have a large home-building industry, specifically as a large manufacturing sector that provides homebuilding materials."

But Humphreys thinks the housing market bottomed out in May and already is beginning its rebuilding process.

"Housing is always two or three months ahead of the overall economy," he said. "This recession is unusual. We get a steep recovery typically because people try to plan for the worst, and this time it may have turned out steeper than initially thought. The pullbacks may have been warranted, so there’s no artificial boost."

The housing market in Hall County is holding steady for now, said Mike Henderson, chief property appraiser in the county tax assessor’s office.

"If you look at transactions on an individual-by-individual basis, values are at or below what people are paying," he said, which he attributes to House Bill 233. The bill, passed this spring, places a moratorium on increases on certain property values.

"But I think we’re at the bottom now. It’s level and we’re hanging in there," Henderson said.

As an economist, Humphreys said it’s hard to predict the next step.

"The best thing to do is be cautious about any kind of revenue projections," he said. "There should be no growth factored in, and you just have to keep your eye on the ball. There’s no time to do strategic planning because we’re in the middle of it. All you can do is patch here and there and try to make it through."

The best long-term move is a complete tax reform, he said.

"That’s several years away, but we need to find a way to make Georgia’s tax structure less cyclical," he said. "It’s exacerbates the good and the bad times of the business cycle, so we need to find a way to tie it to the revenue stream of the actual economy. It’ll take the motivation of many people working together to figure that one out."