Back in March, the Braves looked primed to make a run in the National League’s Eastern Division. Now, at the All-Star break, they’re five games under .500, 6.5 games out of first, and a possible return to the postseason looks bleak.

Then again, they were further back than this when at the All-Star break in the worst-to-first year of 1991. Of course, two of the stalwarts on that staff, and this year’s, were 17 years younger back then.

At the season’s unofficial halfway point, we take a look back at our preseason reasons to believe in and reasons to doubt in the Braves’ predicted resurgence.

Pitching staff solidified or too old?
Too old is the runaway winner so far. Projected ace John Smoltz only lasted five starts and couldn’t make a courageous go at the bullpen stick, despite a modified delivery. Now he’s done for the season, and possibly his career, after shoulder surgery.

Tom Glavine, who the Braves brought home in the offseason, has endured a pair of stints on the disabled list and has only 12 starts to his credit through 95 games.

And where to start with Mike Hampton? Bullpen sessions have been too taxing for the fragile lefty who hasn’t logged a major league appearance since 2005. He’s currently rehabbing in the minors, but at this point any quality innings the Braves get from him this year would have to be considered a luxury.

Despite all this — and thanks in large part to the performances of Jair Jurrjens and Jorge Campillo — the Braves still sport the best team ERA in the National League.

Who knows how good the staff could be with all its pieces in place?

A spark in Escobar or a defensive drain from Johnson?
Yunel Escobar’s batting average has dropped to .286 after hovering around .300 much of the first half, but you can’t ask for much more from a middle infielder in his first season as a full-time starter.

A converted outfielder, Kelly Johnson hasn’t completely grasped the finer points of middle infield defense. He’s 0K with the bat in his hands (.272 average, 8 home runs), but his nine errors put him near the bottom of fielding percentage rankings for everyday second basemen.

Escobar’s been strong defensively, though, ranking sixth in fielding percentage among regular shortstops in MLB.

The sleeper factor

There’s a sleeper in the NL East mix alright, but it ain’t the Braves.

With the most home runs in the National League, the Florida Marlins have overcome a 4.68 team ERA and are just 1.5 games out of first at the break.

Ahead of them, the usual suspects are neck-and-neck at the top.

With Chase Utley vying to become Philadelphia’s third consecutive MVP, the Phillies hold a half game lead over the streaking Mets, who have won nine in a row.

As of now, the Braves remain an afterthought. 

‘Tex’ +/- Chipper
Mark Teixeira, who provided a lift for the lineup in 2007 has been solid, but his .271 average is well below what the Braves were probably hoping for.

Meanwhile, Jones has been one the league’s best hitters, maintaining a .400-plus average for much of the season before a recent slide dropped him to the .370s — still good enough to lead the majors. And despite a smattering of injuries, Jones is still on pace to play 143 games, which is more than he’s played since 2003.

But the team has had trouble manufacturing runs (31 stolen bases, 27th in MLB) and coming up with timely hits (.257 batting average with men in scoring position, 19th in MLB).

Considering that, it’s easy to understand why the Braves are losing one-run games at a record pace.
 

The old manager past his prime?
You’d be hard pressed to find a manager more liked by his ball players, or more respected by his peers, than Bobby Cox.

That, and a history of unprecedented success in the not-too-distant past, is enough to keep Cox in the Braves dugout as long as he wants to be there.

There are still voices saying the Braves need a change at the top, if for no other reason than to shake things up as they head for what could be another losing season and third consecutive October spent at home.

That could happen at the end of this season, but it won’t happen until Cox says so.