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Residents question whether recession has ended
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Great Recession over?

According to the National Bureau of Economic Research, the Great Recession began December 2007 and ended in June 2009. The group defines a recession as the period between a peak and a trough in economic activity, measured on a variety of indicators including Gross Domestic Product and Gross Domestic Income, as measured by a variety of indexes, real manufacturing and trade sales, index of industrial production, real personal income less transfers, aggregate hours of work in the total economy, payroll survey employment and household survey employment.

A non-profit research organization may have declared that the recession is over, but some residents are looking for the proof.

"Tell that to my boss," said Gainesville resident Elise Pittman.

"We haven't had a raise in two years because my boss says that we're in a recession. If the recession is over, where's my raise?"

According to the National Bureau of Economic Research, the recession officially ended in June 2009 when economic activity reached a trough or low point. The organization is a private, research group that is considered to be the official source of economic activity. The group has been tracking economic patterns since 1920.

The bureau defines a recession as the period between a peak and trough in economic activity. The period after the trough is known as the expansion or economic recovery period.

"Since the beginning of this year, we have seen a resurgence of (existing industry) expansion and new business activity in the Gainesville-Hall County area," said Tim Evans, Greater Hall Chamber of Commerce vice president of economic development.

"Our investment this calendar year in job creation is as good as it has been in any of the last five years. We're working with a lot of industry expansions and we're very optimistic about recovery in that sector."

While some industries may be able to add jobs or notice signs of economic recovery, that may not be the same across the board.

"Each business segment in our economy has been affected in their own way," Evans said.

"From health care to residential development and retail - it's a different bag from one sector to the next."

The local education sector is among those beginning to feel a little economic relief. Both the Gainesville City Schools and Hall County Schools systems have announced plans to hire additional teachers for this school year.

The new hires come after both systems had to reduce their staffs at the end of last year, because of reduced federal funding. Recent federal supplements made the new hires possible. The city system will hire five new teachers and the county will hire 15 to 25 part-time teachers.

The research bureau uses Gross Domestic Product - the output of American goods and services - and Gross Domestic Income as the central indicators of economic activity. The bureau also measures other economic factors such as employment rates, real personal income and the total number of hours worked.

According to the bureau, the average of the GDP and GDI reached its low in the second quarter of 2009. At that point, the GDP - measured in billions of dollars - was $14,034 compared to $14,471 during the same time frame in 2008.

A recession, as outlined by the research bureau, is a period of diminishing economic activity. It isn't unusual for certain indicators to show temporary signs of improvement during a recession, which happened during the first three quarters of 2008.

Not every economic indicator is showing signs of recovery.

Unemployment rates nationwide continue to hover near the double digits.

Following historical patterns, current unemployment rates lag behind the bureau's recession and recovery cycle dates. Unemployment rates during this recession didn't peak until they reached 9.5 percent this June - nearly two years after the start of the recession and a year into the recovery period.

"I'll believe the recession is over when more of my friends find jobs," said Gainesville resident William Brinson.

"I used to be able to count on one hand the number of people that I knew that couldn't find work when they were looking - now I don't have enough fingers to count that high."