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Numbers show growth in South Hall may be slowing
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The foundation of a house that is no longer under construction in a neighborhood of homes in Sterling On the Lake. - photo by Tom Reed

The smoke may be clearing from a population explosion in the south end of Hall County.

But the economy also contributed to fewer people moving into cities such as Flowery Branch, where just 82 people moved to in the past year, according to data released this week by the U.S. Census.

While growth in Gainesville has been fairly consistent over the past 10 years, cities such as Flowery Branch and Oakwood started bracing for bigger populations, hiring full-time planning staff and building inspectors for the first time four years ago.

Flowery Branch saw a 46 percent rise in population between 2005 and 2006, according to Census estimates. That growth slowed to 2 percent from 2007 to 2008.

Doug Bachtel, a University of Georgia professor who studies growth and demographic trends, said it would have been unhealthy for Flowery Branch to continue growing at a rate of 46 percent.

"From a leadership standpoint of view, you can’t sustain that type of growth on residential property taxes," Bachtel said. "That type of growth is dysfunctional."

The high rate of growth recorded between 2005 and 2006 can be attributed mainly to the large housing developments built in Flowery Branch that year, said James Riker, planning and community development manager for Flowery Branch since early 2005.

In 2005, the city also hired a full-time building inspector and a full-time permit technician to handle the city’s rapid growth. "From then until now, we’ve had quite a bit of development," Riker said.

Namely, the additions of Sterling on the Lake subdivision and Tree Park Apartments, a multifamily facility with 456 units, were a large part of the city’s growth, Riker said.

But some of the developments that were under way when Riker came to Flowery Branch still have not been completed. And now, instead of permitting new homes, Riker said inspectors and code enforcement officials are making sure developers are keeping their unfinished developments in compliance with soil and erosion standards.

Since 2000, Oakwood’s population growth has hovered around a rate of 3 percent, according to Census estimates. The slow, unchanging growth rate is not surprising in a city that is about 75 percent commercial and industrial, according to Oakwood’s planning director.

"I knew our growth was not phenomenal," said Oakwood Planning Director Larry Sparks. "It’s been kind of steady."

Between 2001 and 2002 and again between 2004 and 2005, the city’s population growth spiked at a rate of 6 percent. Sparks said those spikes were because of annexations and the development of high-density apartment complexes.

Like Riker, Sparks was hired in 2005 as Oakwood’s first full-time planner. Bracing for development in the following years, the city also hired a finance director, a public works director, a full-time code enforcement officer and a building inspector.

"The city did respond to growth by hiring additional staff," Sparks said.

Slowing development halted population growth in Oakwood’s main residential development — apartment complexes. A sixth phase of Crawford Oaks and another approved town home complex never materialized.

"It hit us pretty hard," Sparks said of the economy. "We were doing pretty good until about a year ago."

Georgia has been hit hard by the economy because the economy has been dependent on growth, according to Bachtel.

"Growth begets growth," Bachtel said. "When growth slows down, everybody starts to hurt."

As the recession continues, Sparks said Oakwood may find a way to continue to grow. He said a large apartment complex under construction on Winder Highway may be the key to more population growth during the recession.

"With people’s homes being foreclosed on, they’ve got to live somewhere, so evidently there’s a market for rental property," Sparks said.