The first day of fall doesn't feel much like it.

Local residents will be greeted with a high of 89 today, and temperatures will hover around 90 the rest of the week.

And it's not your imagination, that is above normal, according to state climatologist David Stooksbury.

In fact, looking at high temperatures, this has been the 16th warmest September on record for Gainesville, out of 107 years of data. Looking at average temperatures, it has been the 25th warmest, Stooksbury said.

"It's unusual, but not near record breaking," he added.

But when will things begin to cool off? Jessica Fieux, meteorologist with the National Weather Service, said it could happen as early as this weekend.

"We could see some below 90 temperatures later over the weekend into early next week," she said.

Sunday is forecast to have a high in the mid-80s, and temperatures could drop to the lower 80s on Monday. A 20 percent chance of rain Friday through Monday also could help cool things off, Fieux said.

"But that's pretty far out right now, so that definitely could change," she said.

Stooksbury said temperatures gradually will begin to decrease, but he also said to expect higher than average temperatures for winter.

"Temperatures this winter, in the heart of winter, being in the 60s and 70s, I will not be surprised," he said.

It's a dramatic change from last winter's cold temperatures and relatively frequent snow showers.

Stooksbury attributed the difference to a strong La Niña ocean atmosphere pattern this winter, which is the opposite of the El Niño pattern experienced earlier this year.

La Niña generally brings warm, dry weather to North Georgia, and is often the pattern that leads to a summertime drought, Stooksbury said.

So far this month, Gainesville has recorded 0.72 inches of rain, according to National Weather Service data. Average rainfall for the month is 4.31 inches, according to 1971-2000 Weather Service data.

Tuesday evening Lake Lanier stood at 1068.82, just more than 2 feet below full pool of 1,071.