From Nov. 30 to Dec. 11 in Paris, thousands of politicians, diplomats, bureaucrats, nongovernmental sycophants and trustworthy media people will gather “in the best possible conditions,” according to France Diplomatie website. Their aim is to cobble together a “binding” agreement to reduce CO2 emissions to prevent the global temperature from increasing 2 degrees Celsius.
They also hope to get $100 billion from us (oops, I mean the U.S.) yearly through a financial transaction tax to be arranged by the really trustworthy United Nations. This money will be given to the oh-so-trustworthy leaders of “developing countries,” for things like windmills, solar panels, nuclear weapons and prostitutes. You know how those things work out. But their general aim is said to be stopping global warming from increasing 2 degrees Celsius.
Well, pooh-pooh on them. Many careful scientists and scientific analysts point out that the earth has not gotten warmer over the past decade or two (nearly 18 years now without ANY statistically significant trend of warming).
That is why Dr. Judith Curry, a professor at Georgia Tech, noted that the climate models do not work. The UK Daily Mail of Nov. 9 shows why she is correct. Their graph of the 138 computer models used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change included 5 percent and 95 percent confidence intervals for these model projections.
Approximately, this means a 90 percent probability that the observed results, the data, should be inside these limits. The graph also showed that the past 18 years has seen the earth’s temperature steadily falling below the lower confidence intervals for almost all of those models.
No warming. No wonder Dr. Curry is skeptical.
But there is a change coming. The El Niño currently affecting our day-to-day weather this past year is a strong event, which (like 1998) will likely warm the globe noticeably for a year or two. Do not let the alarmists sway you into thinking the world is finally coming to a boil. It is El Niño, which will go away shortly. Then we worry about La Niña, and maybe drought in 2018-19. El Niño events are known for the past 100,000 years. This is nothing new.
The real test is how the earth responds to the next sunspot cycle, which begins about 2020. Although sunspots themselves do not affect our globe significantly, they accompany significant solar magnetic field disturbances. Fewer sunspots point to a quieter sun and a cooler earth.
Many solar physicists expect the current sunspot cycle to “mark the end of the Modern Maximum, with the Sun switching to a state of less strong activity.” “Less strong” is a way of saying “cooler earth” for decades, maybe even centuries. Stay tuned.
This could be important, because a UK medical journal, The Lancet, recently published a study showing that cold weather kills about 20 times more people than does warm weather. So get some warm clothes for Mama, just in case.
W.T. “Ted” Hinds
Gainesville
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