In the race for governor, Republican Nathan Deal is slowly inching toward a majority over Democrat Roy Barnes, a new poll conducted for The Times and the Georgia Newspaper Partnership shows.

Deal leads Barnes with 47 percent to 40 percent; Libertarian John Monds pulled the support of 6 percent. Seven percent are undecided, according to the poll conducted Tuesday through Thursday by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research Inc.

Though Deal has steadily remained below the necessary 50-percent majority vote to win outright, Republicans are looking at the 7 percent of undecided voters as a sure bet to make up the margin Tuesday.

"This is yet another strong showing for Nathan Deal," spokesman Brian Robinson said. "As poll watchers can tell you, the undecided will break evenly, and probably more heavily toward Nathan in this election because of the backlash against Democratic policies. Nathan is well-situated to pick up enough votes for the majority."

Barnes is waiting until Tuesday to see what happens next.

"The only poll we trust is the one on Election Day by the voters," Barnes spokesman Emil Runge said in a statement. "Roy is gathering momentum from across Georgia including from Republicans, independents and women."

Runge declined to comment further about the undecided voters or the possibility of a runoff.
"Barnes hasn't moved and Deal's numbers are in line with other recent Deal numbers," said Charles Bullock, a political science professor at the University of Georgia. "In the last four polls I've seen, three had him at 49 percent and the other had him at 47 percent."

Bullock, who at first thought a runoff was a possibility, now sees it as unlikely.

"To keep Deal from getting a majority, Barnes has to get the bulk of undecided voters and at least get up to 45 percent," he said. "He hasn't been able to pull above 43 in any poll. It's a challenge, and I'm not saying that it couldn't happen, but without an incumbent candidate, the undecided voters will tend to break even."

Bullock is also impressed with Monds' 6 percent in the governor's race, which is higher than the 3 or 4 percent Libertarians are drawing in the other state races.

"If he actually gets 6 percent, this might well be the highest any Libertarian statewide has ever done," he said. "If he holds that number, it shows there are some voters turned off by both Barnes and Deal because of the negatives ads. Some Republicans may not be voting for Democrats but are concerned about the problems that Deal has had."

Deal has faced accusations that while in Congress he used his influence to protect his private business. He also has been criticized for financial problems that have forced him to put his home on the market.

"One might have thought months ago that he can't win with those problems, but he's been something of a Teflon man. They just slid off him," Bullock said. "If you also look at unfavorable numbers, you see that Deal's favorables are slightly above his unfavorables, while Barnes' unfavorables are going up.

"It seems counterintuitive because the negative news has been about Deal, but maybe people are remembering what they didn't like about Barnes' early tour (1999-2003) as governor."

Monds supporters are seeing the 6 percent as a sign that voters are realizing the traditional party choices aren't working for them.

"Monds is reaching a broad spectrum of voters, not just disenchanted Republicans," said Brett Bittner, a Monds spokesman and operations director for the state's Libertarian party. "We're telling voters to take this opportunity to vote for their conscience, and if it comes to a runoff, they can vote for the lesser of two evils."

Though the numbers are unusually high for a Libertarian candidate, Bittner said Monds' true numbers could be even higher.

"A lot of the automated calls made for polls contact only (telephone) land lines, and we're flabbergasted that people are putting so much faith into polls that don't even include a quarter of the population. About 85 percent of voters under 30 don't have a land line. I know I don't," he said.

"It's an interesting methodology to continue using just the land line numbers when candidates are using smart phones and social networking to reach voters. We think it skews the numbers a little older, which makes our numbers look smaller as we have strong support from the under-30 group."

The governor's race has dominated political discussions and media reports about state races, with the others showing double-digit leads for Republicans.

Incumbent Republican Lt. Gov. Casey Cagle pulled 51 percent to Democrat Carol Porter's 33 percent, with 4 percent for Libertarian Dan Barber. About 12 percent remain undecided.

Republican incumbent U.S. Sen. Johnny Isakson (56 percent) leads Democrat Michael Thurmond (33 percent) and Libertarian Chuck Donovan (4 percent). About 7 percent are still undecided.

"I think that this is such a banner year for Republicans that maybe we should expect people are going to be voting Republican down the ballot," said Douglas Young, a political science professor at Gainesville State College. "It's less likely we should think they'll be making an exception regarding the governor's race."

The smallest leads are in the attorney general and state school superintendent races, with Republican attorney general candidate Sam Olens taking 46 percent to Democrat Ken Hodges' 34 percent and Libertarian Don Smart receiving the support of 4 percent. Sixteen percent of respondents said they were undecided.

In the race for school superintendent, the poll found Republican John Barge with 39 percent to 29 percent for Democrat Joe Martin. Libertarian Kira Willis had the support of 5 percent, and a full 27 percent said they were undecided.

"The fact that the governor's race is close probably tells us the amount of money spent on behalf of Roy Barnes' campaign," Bullock said. "The other Democrats don't have nearly as much."

In the poll, Deal is dominating among men and white voters and has a 7-point lead among self-described independents. Sixty-two percent of white voters and 51 percent of men say they'll back Deal, while Barnes leads 44 percent to 40 percent among women.

Barnes, who has made a strong push for the support of women over the past few weeks by lashing out at Deal's record on domestic violence and protections for rape victims, must hope that the 12 percent of women who said they were undecided break overwhelmingly for him Tuesday.

Both candidates are strongly supported by their party, and Barnes has the support of 84 percent of African-American voters, although 11 percent of black voters said they were undecided.

"Ultimately the black vote will get behind Barnes, but black males are usually later to line up. They tend to participate at much lower rates," Bullock said. "With the gender gap here, men also vote more Republican than women. Barnes will need to pull from those undecided numbers."

The shifting numbers leading into Tuesday may come from recent public events, such as debates and negative campaigning on both sides, Young said.

"I know that in the last couple of weeks we've seen more ads on TV from the Deal campaign that have been very critical of Barnes, so maybe after the tremendous number of Barnes ads that were critical of Deal, a counterattack has worked," he said.

"The effective line in some of Deal's ads is the closing line when he says that once really was enough. A lot of teachers may have bitter memories about Barnes taking away tenure for K-12 teachers, and I'm sure in more rural southern Georgia, where the old state flag is revered by so many folks, the change still doesn't sit well with them."

Barnes' previous education moves are exactly what will drive Cornelia resident Jennifer Abel to vote for Deal on Tuesday.

"I'm so against Roy Barnes that it shades me. I was a teacher when Barnes was governor, and he took an awful lot from us," said Abel, who has taught in several schools around the state and now teaches in Cornelia.

"Once he was voted in, he put a freeze on our pay increases, and we already had been for years. We were due. I don't know as much about Deal, but I'll vote for the lesser of two evils."

Education also drives Starla Lawrence, a Baldwin resident who is a speech therapist for Commerce schools, but in a different direction.

"I have two children, one in high school and one in middle school, and my biggest fear is the HOPE scholarship. Under the Republican governor, we about lost the scholarship," she said.

"Anything to do with education and my job is my biggest concern, and I know Barnes is more for education. Everything Gov. Sonny Perdue did to save money when we had the crunch hurt the children in the long run."

Lawrence, who moved from Maine about three years ago, isn't as familiar with Barnes' past term as governor but like his ideas now.

"I know he angered teachers, but I'm thinking if the state really came in last in test scores, is that really the governor's fault?" she said. "The only thing I'm surprised about this poll is that Barnes isn't farther behind. This is Georgia. You can't get more conservative and Republican if you tried. If he's in the ballpark, it's amazing."