For all the hoopla surrounding Jason Heyward, it’s another towering newcomer who holds the key to the Braves’ success in 2010.
The rookie’s batting practice sessions have already become the stuff of legend, and through his patience at the plate, basepath savvy and .333 batting average through 20 spring games, he has shown why he’s touted as the No. 1-rated prospect in the majors.
But in Heyward’s shadow, another 6-foot-5, 240-pounder has quietly had the better spring. Troy Glaus, the team’s new first baseman, is hitting .396 and getting on base 50 percent of the time just a weekend away from opening day. And even though those stats will be reset to zeroes Monday, little should make a Braves fan happier.
For all the things the Atlanta Braves did well in 2009, driving in runs was not one of them. They got by on their pitching, leading the majors in starters’ ERA. They also put runners on base at a rate better than most teams.
That might have been sufficient to create a winner were it not for the team’s extreme power shortage in 2009, when only Brian McCann hit more than 20 home runs (he hit 21), no player slugged better than .500, and despite ranking 11th in the majors in on-base percentage, the Braves ranked 17th in the league in runs scored.
All of which speaks to the need for a true clean-up hitter. When they had one — Adam LaRoche, in August and September — the Braves’ offensive output increased by better than 10 percent and they went 34-21, their best two-month stretch of the season.
Heyward does many things well. His presence will make the Braves better, and it’s probably only a matter of time before he assumes his spot in the heart of the order. But expecting a 20-year-old to anchor the middle of a Major League lineup isn’t realistic.
Albert Pujols was able to pull it off at 21 years old, hitting 37 home runs and driving in 130 in 2000, but that only happens once every 100 years or so. More often, even the most talented of underaged rookies put up a line similar to 19-year-old Ken Griffey Jr.’s in 1989: 16 home runs, 61 RBIs.
This is where Glaus comes in.
The Braves picked up the erstwhile slugger as a bargain free agent in the offseason after he missed virtually all of 2009 due to injury. Before that, he averaged 30 home runs and 85 RBIs in 10 seasons, including two that were cut short by injuries.
At 33, Glaus shouldn’t be expected to replicate those numbers, but if the Braves are to contend for a playoff spot in a crowded National League East, he needs to come close.
Bill James, the notorious baseball researcher/statistician, believes he can do it.
His projections for the 2010 season have Glaus playing in 148 games, hitting 28 home runs and driving in 91 runs.
Sean Smith, who produces the widely referenced CHONE projections, is less optimistic. He has Glaus with 19 home runs and 64 RBIs — and playing in only 115 games.
The biggest question hanging over Glaus, it would seem, is whether or not he can stay healthy, and the answer could be the fulcrum on which the Braves’ season swings.
Brent Holloway is the sports editor for The Times. Contact him at bholloway@gainesvilletimes.com.