Bryce Elliot's quick hit of financial news in the morning has become a sobering part of his day. As analysts dissect turmoil taking place half a world away, Elliot watches and speculates what it's going to mean for the bottom line at his Gainesville business.

"We're very concerned," said the owner of Deer Creek Distributors, an eight-employee company that delivers prepackaged meat and dairy products. "We're able to manage it now, but if worst case scenarios play out in the Middle East, it is greatly going to impact our operating costs."

Georgia gas prices have jumped 40 cents in the last month, half of that last week because of concern that political turmoil in Libya will spread to other oil-rich countries. Consumers are paying on average 80 cents more per gallon than they were this time last year.

The spike has businesses and consumers shuddering with memories of $4 per gallon gas in summer 2008, with many wondering how the unrest in the Middle East will add to the regular summer travel increases.

Jessica Brady, spokeswoman for AAA Georgia, said it could mean Americans will see summer prices far before the summer travel season.

"At the beginning of the year with the Mideast aside, it was said that we would probably see $4 at peak summer time," she said. "It looks like we're probably going to see that price range sooner rather than later."

But there's a bigger concern on economists' minds - that rising fuel costs could set back the economic recovery.

"Rising gas prices can be a drag on the economic recovery because petroleum is such a widespread product though the whole economy," said Katie Simmons, chairwoman of the business division at Gainesville State College in Oakwood. "We think of it for fuels and of course it's an important use for fuels, but it's also a component of many products."

Fertilizer used in growing produce, for example, is made from petroleum, Simmons said. That will mean rising prices not just at the pumps but at the grocery store.

Darrell Wiley, president and CEO of J&J Foods, said he's seen produce prices from his suppliers in California increase slightly in the last few weeks.

But the markup at his three Northeast Georgia locations has been minimal, he said, and so far consumers don't seem to be limiting their spending.

"No retailer likes to talk about price increases but it just is the cost of doing business," he said.

"When costs go up the only way we can absorb them is to pass it along. But that's not something that we're doing on a regular basis."

Elliot's distribution business is also affected by the rising cost of food. Then, he said, the increase ripples through the rest of his business model.

"To exacerbate the problem, I have to adjust my prices because my food costs are going up," he said.

"And then also my delivery cost increases because of fuel."

On Thursday, Elliot held a meeting with his staff to brainstorm ways of streamlining delivery routes and distributing the same amount of product with less fuel.

It's the same story at the Hall County Public Works office, where fleet manager Tom Boyd is trying to operate his 209 county vehicles and 441 construction machines more efficiently. The office is budgeted $2.76 per gallon at a set amount of gallons per year. But last week, Boyd's wholesale fuel price was at least 35 cents higher than that.

Public Works Director Ken Rearden said the department's "no idling" policy implemented in 2008 should keep costs down.

"We're slightly concerned," Rearden said. "We're running a little under budget right now. ... So hopefully we'll stay within the entire operating budget that we've been allocated."

Local business owners say they are cautiously optimistic about weathering the storm but still concerned over how the turmoil in the Middle East will play out.

Until the uprising settles, predicting relief is impossible, Brady said. And summer travel levels are another question mark in the equation, she said.

Ultimately, the prices this summer will tie back to supply and demand, Simmons said. If Americans continue to travel at normal summer levels, prices will continue to rise. But the price at the pump may cause Americans to cut back, which would keep demand low, she said.

"Everything really is up in the air at this point," Brady said. "No one knows how things are going to unfold."