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Governors race runoff a possible scenario
Poll: Deal trails 50 percent needed to win outright
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Election coverage

Today: A look at the likelihood of a runoff in the governor’s race.

Tuesday: Catching up with Nathan Deal’s activities the day before the election.

Wednesday: A special section devoted to election results.

See our elections guide.

As polls continue to show Georgia’s gubernatorial candidates below the majority to outright win the election Tuesday, political experts and campaign officials are still talking about the possibility of a runoff.

In a new poll conducted for The Times and the Georgia Newspaper Partnership, Republican Nathan Deal is pulling 47 percent, with Democrat Roy Barnes at 40 percent and Libertarian John Monds at 6 percent. With 7 percent of voters undecided, a runoff is possible, said Brad Coker, managing director of Mason-Dixon Polling & Research Inc.

“I’d say you can’t really tell,” Coker said of the potential for a Nov. 30 runoff. “It’s inconclusive.”

The poll, conducted Tuesday through Thursday by Maxon-Dixon, also shows 11 percent undecideds among black voters and 12 percent undecided female voters, which is a group both Barnes and Deal have targeted with ads in the past several weeks.

The Barnes campaign declined to comment on the possibility of a runoff, but Deal supporters seems confident if Tuesday’s race extends to the end of the month.

“This poll shows that Nathan is in a large position to win with a comfortable majority on Tuesday,” spokesman Brian Robinson said. “Traditionally, third party candidates get about 3 to 4 percent, and we see no reason to believe that will change significantly in this race. Often undecideds will say they’re voting for the third party instead of say they’re undecided. A good number will probably break, and Nathan is well-positioned to pick up those votes.”

A runoff will show that voters are split about the quality of the candidates, said Monds spokesman Brett Bittner, operations director for the state’s Libertarian party.

“Voters aren’t just accepting the rhetoric. They want to see action on issues,” Bittner said. “They’re looking for other solutions because career politicians don’t have the best track record of living up to their campaign promises. The day after the election, they’re already focused on become reelected.”

Monds supporters are telling voters to go with their conscience, not just a party identity.

“Then if it comes to a runoff, they can vote for the lesser of two evils,” Bittner said.

University of Georgia political science professor Charles Bullock, who thought a runoff was a possibility weeks ago, now sees it as unlikely.

“To keep Deal from getting a majority, Barnes has to get the bulk of undecided voters and at least get up to 45 percent,” he said. “He hasn’t been able to pull above 43 in any poll. It’s a challenge, and I’m not saying that it couldn’t happen, but without an incumbent candidate, the undecided voters will tend to break even.”

Although the undecided black vote will go to Barnes, most the overall 7 percent undecided vote will likely go to Deal, Bullock said.

“A runoff is less likely because Deal’s numbers have perked up. Some undecideds just may not vote or not vote for either of them,” he said. “If they decide not to express a vote, the 47 percent could become the majority.”

Though Deal will probably find a majority on Tuesday, his campaign “still has a lot of work to do,” said Douglas Young, a political science professor at Gainesville State College.

“Even if he is 7 points ahead, he’s still under 50 percent, but I can’t help but think Deal will have an advantage if there’s a runoff,” he said. “It’s hard to believe that any Monds supporters would cross over and vote for Barnes. If they really are Libertarians, they agree with Deal’s ideas way more. I don’t see polls asking Monds voters what they would do in a runoff. That would be interesting.”

Based on past trends leading into Election Day, Monds’ current 6 percent could fade by Tuesday.

“I would be surprised if Monds gets 6 percent, so it seems Deal has a good chance of winning this thing outright on Tuesday,” Young said. “If he already has 47 percent and there’s 7 percent undecided, he’s doing better than Barnes and it’s possible he could cross that 50 percent finish line and seal the deal. It’ll be a challenge, but I can see it happening.”