A spoonful of sugar helps the sluggish economic forecast go down.

And local bakeries are hard at work nurturing many a professional’s sweet tooth, as companies are dishing out confections at conferences and meetings in an attempt to liven up the office atmosphere — one single serving at a time.

At Truelove Bakery, cupcakes are flying off the shelves.

“We sell over a thousand cupcakes a week,” bakery owner Peggy Truelove said. “We’re swamped. We do red velvet, key lime, coconut, black walnut, German chocolate ...”

The miniature cakes are part of an increase she’s seen in demand for just a bite of something sweet.
“I think it’s just a new trend,” she said. “Instead of getting just one cake you can get a variety. (Cupcakes) are not just for kids anymore; adults love them.”

Rebecca Clanton, owner of Sweet Magnolia’s, said she sells about 15 dozen coconut cupcakes and more than 15 dozen brownies each week. She said business at the cafe and bakery has doubled since March.

“We have so many pharmaceutical reps who use our items, put them on a tray and take them to doctor’s offices,” she said. Many businesses in Gainesville and lawyers from the Hall County courthouse will get a tray of sweets from the bakery and take them back to the office, Clanton said.

“It’s comfort food,” she said. “In these trying times, it gives people comfort.”

And with a record drought in North Georgia and slowing growth in the state, the little bites of heaven give local businesspeople a sweet escape from current economic woes.

“We’re not experiencing anything close to the best of times that we have enjoyed in recent decades,” said Jeffrey Humphreys, director of economic forecasting for the University of Georgia. “The average business in North Georgia (is) not doing as well as they’re accustomed to doing.”

Humphreys said home builders and real estate agents and any sort of related business is in a deep recession. “And it’s going to get much worse before they get better,” he said.

Some businesses are feeling pressure because of the drought. Local businesses that grow, sell and install plants as well as some agricultural sectors of the economy are being affected by the drought in a bad way, Humphreys said. And certain parts of the manufacturing sector have been suffering for the past decade, he added.

But while some sectors of the economy are certainly in a slump, Humphreys said economic conditions in Georgia and North Georgia are still fairly good.

“If I graded the economy, I’d give it a C+ or a B- grade relative to our historical performance,” he said. “In other words, we’re performing below trend.”

Despite the somewhat wilting economy in North Georgia, Humphreys said Georgia remains one of the better performing states in the country. Compared to the economies of other states, he said he would give Georgia a grade of B+ or an A-.

So perk up. At least we’re not in a recession — yet, Humphreys said.

And while Gainesville has been largely immune from the mortgage crisis affecting most of the country, trouble isn’t too far down the road; the Associated Press recently reported foreclosures in the Atlanta area have hit a record high. The October statistics show 6,809 properties in the metro Atlanta area have been threatened with public auction, which is a 49 percent jump compared to October of 2006.

Recent financial turmoil in the stock market, characterized by high energy costs and what Humphreys calls a “credit crisis” has the UGA economics forecaster predicting a 40 percent chance for a recession in 2008.

He said the highest risk of recession will come during the end of this year and the beginning of 2008.

The conference center at Lake Lanier Islands Resort didn’t wait until the economy got ugly to start doling out cookies.

They’ve provided warm cookies as a midafternoon snack since 2001 for business conferences partaking in their complete business package.

“With conferences in the afternoon, it just gives a little pep once those people have been sitting there all day listening to presentations,” said Nikki Taylor, media and public relations manager for the resort.
So don’t panic, Humphreys said.

Grab a coconut-frosted cupcake, lick your fingers while no one’s looking and chill out.

“Things are doing OK. Conditions are still growing, but at slower rates than they typically do,” Humphreys said. “The good news is most businesses are still growing, and most businesses in Georgia tend to do better than businesses across the nation.”